Operations assessment - focus on reality rather than the plan

Since no plan survives contact with reality, during the execution of a military operation it might be necessary to re-plan the operation. In order to decide whether, and when, re-planning should be initiated a feedback process is needed that provides the commander with information about the progress of the operation, and an assessment of whether the operation is leading towards the overarching goals or not. The operations assessment process is part of such a feedback process. The current method (in e.g. NATO) operations assessment is focused on the accomplishment of planned actions and on the effects in the operational environment system. A data collection plan is established during development of the operational plan which specifies which and how data should be collected. Thus the “questions” the operations assessment process poses towards the environment are tightly connected to critical elements of the operational plan. If the plan, however, starts to become obsolete due to unforeseen changes in the operational environment, there might be a risk that the assessment process, grounded in the plan, neglects information that is critical for decisions about re-planning. This paper suggests an alternative approach to operations assessment that is based on an idea of separating the operations assessment plan from the operational plan. Such a separation would focus the assessment process on the evolving operational environment, thus reducing the risk that unanticipated threats, or opportunities, will be overlooked and re-planning is overdue.